Reasoning under Uncertainty: A Dual-Process Perspective on Decision-Making in the Digital Age

Abstract

In increasingly complex and data-saturated organizational environments, understanding the cognitive mechanisms behind managerial decision-making has become a critical research issue. While classical models portray decision-makers as rational actors following linear, logic-based processes, behavioral research highlights the influence of cognitive biases and heuristics. This conceptual paper draws upon dual-process theory (Kahneman, Stanovich & West), which distinguishes between two cognitive systems: System 1, fast and intuitive, and System 2, slow and analytical. Building on a multidisciplinary literature review spanning cognitive psychology, behavioral decision-making, and management science, the paper explores how information uncertainty influences the activation of these reasoning styles. It further considers the growing presence of digital decision environments, such as Business Intelligence platforms and artificial intelligence systems, which seek to reduce uncertainty but may also shift cognitive dynamics. The article aims to provide a theoretical foundation for understanding how individuals adapt their reasoning under uncertainty, and to inform the future design of cognitively aligned decision support tools. It targets scholars in organizational behavior, cognitive decision theory, and information systems, offering a structured conceptual framework for advancing research and managerial insight. This is a theoretical contribution without original empirical data, but grounded in contemporary challenges facing decision-makers in technologically mediated contexts.

Classification JEL : D81 – M15

Paper type : Theoretical Research