Access to electricity and human development in Mali: an empirical assessment based on the ARDL model

Abstract

This study examines the impact of access to electricity, access to clean water, public health expenditures, and the school enrollment rate on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Mali over the period 2000–2023. The dataset consists of reliable national time series with 24 annual observations, allowing for a coherent assessment of both short- and long-term dynamics. The analysis is based on an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, suitable for mixed-order integrated series, which distinguishes between immediate and lasting effects of the explanatory variables.

The estimated results indicate that, in the long run, access to electricity has a positive and statistically significant effect on HDI, confirming its central role as a structural infrastructure. In contrast, the coefficients for access to clean water and public health expenditures are negative and significant, which may reflect inefficiencies or governance issues in the management of these public services rather than an inherently adverse effect. School enrollment, on the other hand, does not show a significant effect, according to the estimated model. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening electrical infrastructure while improving the quality and management of public services to support sustainable human development in Mali.

The study has certain limitations, notably the small size of the annual sample and the absence of detailed regional data, which limits the generalization of the results. These constraints provide avenues for future research incorporating regional or sectoral data to better understand the determinants of human development.

JEL Classification : C32, O15, Q41, O55

Paper type : Empirical research