Intangible capital and the prediction of export trends in Morocco: econometric modeling

Abstract

At the macro level, investment in intangible capital can impact export performance. The stock of accumulated intangible capital can be a major determinant of its success in the economic and trade arena. States seek to establish themselves as ʺ reservoirs ʺ of quality intangible capital. This form of intangible capital accumulation can act positively to boost exports. As such, a ̏important ̏and quality intangible capital stock, via its specific characteristics, can lead to trade openness and structural change in the economy. The level of trade openness depends on the level of accumulation of intangible capital. The theoretical debate around the relationship between the accumulation of intangible capital and the level of exports (via economic openness) is split, at least, on two causal links: the first indicate the role of the stock, assumed to be of quality, intangible capital in the optimization, commercial performance and competitiveness of countries on an international scale. The second highlights the role of the accumulation of intangible capital in strengthening the trade balance through the specific characteristics of the accumulated stock. Similarly, intangible capital can also be a source of economic growth.

This contribution aims to study, in the case of Morocco, the relationship between the indices quantifying intangible capital (exogenous variables) and the process by which they explain export performance (endogenous variable). We trace the intellectual trajectory of this relationship in order to build our theoretical model and to verify it in the case of Morocco. We will use the multiple linear regression method using the R software. The number of observations of our indicators is 30. This work is based on the following problematic: To what extent can intangible capital predict the evolution of exports in Morocco? 

Keywords: Intangible capital, Trade openness, Exports.

JEL Classification: E01

Type of paper: Empirical research