Population and economic growth: a historical overview of demo-economic ideas and theories

Abstract

Demographic issues have always been a central concern for economists and politicians. The history of economic thought shows that almost all economic theorists have been interested in the effects of population growth on economic growth. Their writings gave rise to a wide range of analyzes that can be grouped into three currents. A pro-natalist current (populationist) for which demographic growth stimulates economic growth, an anti-natalist current (pessimistic) for which demographic growth slows down economic growth and a third current (neutral) which denies the existence of causal relationships between demographic and economic variables.

The opposition between Malthusians and natalists continues to structure many debates on the effects of population dynamics. The nature of the relationship between demographic variables and economic growth is likely to be causal with a feedback effect. Rather, it falls under the concept of a system in that there are inputs and outputs whose roles change over time. The economic implications of demographic change are undoubtedly the topics that have received the most attention.

In this article, we attempt to present in a chronological order the theories of population developed by the different schools of economic thought as well as the negative or positive effects of population changes on economic growth. Indeed, divergent ideas about demographic situations have contributed to the formulation of important demo-economic theories. Among these, the most important are: pre-Malthusian thinking on population, Malthusian theory and post-Malthusian theories.

JEL Classification: J11, B10, O50

Paper type: Theoretical Research