Migration and Territorial Development in Morocco: An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Migration in the Guelmim-Oued Noun Region

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between migration and territorial development in Morocco’s Guelmim-Oued Noun region. It addresses the scarcity of infranational and multidimensional analyses of the migration-development nexus in Morocco by using a small panel of four provinces observed over eight years (2015–2022), yielding 32 observations. Territorial development is measured through a composite index derived from Principal Component Analysis (PCA) combining employment, investment, GDP per capita, education, and urbanization. Within a hypothetico-deductive framework, H1 predicts a positive effect of MRE remittances and H2 a positive association between a more favorable migration balance and territorial development. Pooled OLS, fixed-effects, and random-effects estimations reveal substantial provincial heterogeneity. The fixed-effects specification, retained cautiously given the inconclusive Hausman test, reports a within R² of 0.895. Remittances are negatively associated with the development index (β = −0.1584; SE = 0.0140; p < 0.001), whereas the migration balance is not statistically significant (β = −0.000076; SE = 0.000179; p = 0.675). H1 is therefore rejected in its initially hypothesized direction and H2 is not supported. These associations should not be interpreted as unidirectional causal effects and highlight the importance of local economic and institutional capacities in transforming migration-related resources into sustainable territorial development.

Classification JEL : F22, F24, O15, R11, R23, C23

Paper type : Empirical Research