Regression dynamics of Argan and Atlas Cedar forests: A synthesis of anthropogenic and climatic pressures

Abstract

This integrative review synthesizes 45 scientific and institutional publications issued between 1973 and 2025 to explain the regression pathways of argan (Argania spinosa (L.) Skeels) and Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière) forests in Morocco. The corpus was assembled through documentary searches conducted in Google Scholar, Crossref, DOAJ and publisher platforms, supplemented by official documents from UNESCO, the IPCC, FAO and the National Agency for Water and Forests. Sources were selected according to thematic, geographic and methodological relevance, then analyzed through a grid covering climatic exposure, ecological sensitivity, anthropogenic pressure, regeneration and institutional adaptive capacity. The synthesis identifies distinct pathways but a common mechanism of disrupted forest renewal. In the Aoulouz argan woodland, mean density declined from 27.4 to 15.2 trees per hectare between 1970 and 2007, a 44.5% decrease, whereas more recent observations reveal strong local heterogeneity and a canopy loss of approximately 2.86% between 2017 and 2023 in a monitored area near Agadir. For Atlas cedar, models project a 21% to 41% decrease in populations located within climatically suitable areas, depending on the time horizon and emission scenario. These findings indicate that climate acts as an amplifier, while overgrazing, cutting, fragmentation, water pressure and governance weaknesses often determine the shift from reversible stress to structural regression. Adaptive management based on regeneration protection, microrefugia conservation, remote-sensing monitoring, pastoral agreements and an equitable distribution of local benefits is therefore a priority. The comparison further shows that robust diagnosis requires jointly tracking adult vitality, recruitment, spatial connectivity and the institutional conditions that govern local uses.

JEL Classification: Q23; Q54; Q57

Paper type: Theoretical Research (integrative literature review)