The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco's economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model

Authors

  • Abdelillah MOUSTAHFID Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences of Souissi, Mohamed V University, Rabat, Morocco
  • Safae ABOUALI Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences of Souissi, Mohamed V University, Rabat, Morocco
  • Abdellah ECHAOUI Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences of Souissi, Mohamed V University, Rabat, Morocco
  • Ismail EL BALGHITY Faculty of Economics and Management, Sultan Mou1ay Slimane University, Béni Mellal, Morocco

Keywords:

VECM model, GDP, Oil prices, , energy and Morocco

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of oil prices on Morocco's GDP. It uses an empirical approach based on a vector error correction model (VECM) incorporating five variables: GDP, oil prices, consumer prices, balance of payments, exports and imports, over a 32-year period from 1991 to 2022.

The results show that oil price fluctuations have a significant influence on Morocco's long-term economic performance. In particular, an increase in oil prices has a negative effect on GDP, highlighting the Moroccan economy's heavy dependence on energy imports.

Classification JEL : C22, E23, E31 , Q43, F43

Type du papier : Empirical research

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Published

2026-01-15

How to Cite

MOUSTAHFID, A., ABOUALI, S., ECHAOUI, A., & EL BALGHITY, I. (2026). The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco’s economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model. International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, 7(1), 544–562. Retrieved from https://ijafame.org/index.php/ijafame/article/view/2250

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): January

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Abdelillah MOUSTAHFID, Safae ABOUALI, Abdellah ECHAOUI, Ismail EL BALGHITY

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