Analyse théorique de la résilience de la BVC face à la crise sanitaire internationale du COVID-19

Abstract

The Casablanca Stock Exchange had to face the first financial crisis of sanitary origin in its history: that of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and its repercussions on the national and global financial markets, with initial shock waves similar to those of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008-09.

The crisis reached Morocco after the recording of the first confirmed case in March 2020, followed by the enforcement of lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus, which resulted in the upheaval of the country's overall situation, in particular on the economic and financial levels as well as by the disruption of nearly a decade of sustained growth.

As to the literature supporting the theoretical analysis of this paper, the impact of the crisis on the BVC in 2020 was the subject of a scientific study published in the international journal of the digital economy, entitled “contribution to the study of the impact of the Covid-19 health crisis on the Casablanca Stock Exchange and of the COVID-19 Special File of report Number 4 2020 published by the Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC).

The main objective of this paper is to study in detail the resilience of the Moroccan stock market during the period, through a direct statistical observation of the 4 selected variables relating to stock market performance (stock indices, sector indices, market capitalization and overall volume of transactions) recorded between 2018 and 2021, the two years of the period of the pandemic crisis and the two years preceding it as a basis for comparison, in order to deduce the degree of resilience that the BVC has shown in the face of the crisis while taking into account takes into account the evolution of the chosen variables as well as the contribution of other external factors which contributed to alleviating or complicate the sanitary and economic situation of the country during the studied period.

It is worth pointing out that the paper is not empirical in nature: it merely analyzes the data related to the selected variables in order to deduce the nature of the resilience shown by the BVC in the face of the COVID crisis.

JEL Classification: E44, G11, G15, G19, G29

Paper type: Theoretical Research