Modeling of scenarios for the reform of the private pension system: Case of Morocco

Abstract

Social protection policy is a subject of global debate, all countries are constantly looking for the best reform scenarios, allowing them to ensure a fair correlation between the financial balance of the management bodies and the maintenance of the purchasing power of citizens. The retirement branch is today the main concern of the countries of the world, suffering from several constraints (aging of the population, unemployment ...) its sustainability is threatened. In Morocco, the retirement branch also registers several deficiencies, and the pensions awarded, especially in the private sector, are considered precarious. In this article we are interested in the retirement of the private sector managed by the National Social Security Fund, thus, by modeling plausible reform scenarios, we try to answer the question: what are the reform scenarios adapted to the Moroccan context, which can guarantee a better retirement for employees in the private sector? In this perspective and in order to respond to this problem, we considered it imperative to adopt a simulation approach by typical profiles, representative of the insured persons of the private plan, in order to propose scenarios that can ensure a better standard of living for future pensioners combined with a retirement aligned with the cost of living. The interpretation of the results has shown that it is suggested to start with a parametric reform by an action on the classic trio: contribution rates, retirement age and capped salary subject to contributions, in order to act as soon as possible and to associate with this reform, an action in the fields related to social protection, in particular the employment market and the tax system.

Keywords: Reform, scenarios, retirement, CNSS, private sector.

JEL Classification : C15

Paper type : Empirical research