The Impact of Systemic Crises on Sectoral Performance: Evidence from the Casablanca Stock Exchange

Résumé

The COVID-19 pandemic constituted a major systemic shock that affected financial markets unevenly across sectors and over time. This study examines the relationship between COVID-19 infection dynamics and sectoral stock performance on the Casablanca Stock Exchange from February 2020 to January 2023. It focuses on three dimensions: the association between infection rates and sectoral returns, the heterogeneity of sectoral sensitivity and resilience, and temporal variation across three pandemic waves (Wave 1: March to November 2020; Wave 2: December 2020 to August 2021; Wave 3: September 2021 to January 2023).

Using Pearson correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) on 76 listed companies, the results show a statistically significant but relatively weak and heterogeneous relationship between infection rates and sectoral performance (H1), with Pearson coefficients ranging from approximately -0.184 to 0.371. Substantial sectoral differences are observed (H2): mobility-dependent industries, such as tourism, transportation, and real estate, were among the most affected, whereas telecommunications, banking, and IT services showed greater resilience, partly supported by sustained dividend payments. The wave-based analysis (H3) indicates that 18 out of 24 sectors experienced statistically significant performance changes across pandemic waves.

This study contributes to the literature by providing a granular sectoral analysis in an emerging market context. It also proposes a conceptual behavioral transmission framework based on crisis communication intensity to interpret the declining market sensitivity observed across waves. The findings highlight important policy implications for adaptive communication strategies and targeted sectoral support during systemic crises.

Classification JEL : C33, G01, G11, O55.

Paper type : Empirical Research