The effect of Climate Change on Food Security in Morocco: An ARDL Econometric Analysis of Population Food Accessibility

Résumé

Currently, the agricultural sector is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate hazards, and this vulnerability is evident at several levels, such as sufficient access to good quality food at reasonable prices. To this end, they affect the four dimensions of food security, namely availability, accessibility, stability and utilisation. This study aims to demonstrate the effect of climate change on the prevalence of undernourishment, with a view to guiding decision-makers towards the adoption of strategies to reduce this indicator. The methodology adopted in this article is based on an econometric study using an ARDL model and national data comprising 30 observations. The results of the model show a negative long-term and short-term relationship between the endogenous variable (undernourishment) and the exogenous variable (cereal production). In the short term, the average temperature of the previous period has a positive influence on the prevalence of undernourishment. This suggests that a one-unit increase in the average temperature of the previous year will lead to a 0.201 increase in the level of undernourishment and food insecurity. In conclusion, the negative relationship between cereal production, which is highly dependent on climatic conditions, and the important role of cereals in reducing undernourishment must be taken into account when suggesting that the country should establish an agri-food system capable of adapting to these conditions.

JEL classification: Q18, Q54, C01, Q01

Paper type: Empirical research