Analysis of the synchronization of the Moroccan economic cycle with the cycles of the main partner countries in terms of trade and with some economic indicators

Abstract

This article aims to respond to a central problem relating to analyzing the degree of synchronization of the cycles of the Moroccan economy with the economic cycles of the main partner countries in terms of trade and also with the main economic indicators of the Moroccan economy. this paper presents the different methods of extracting economic cycles: Hodrick Prescott's filters, Baxter and King's bandpass and Christiano and Fitzgerald. These techniques were applied to quarterly GDP data from Morocco and its main partner countries, as well as to economic indicators on a sample of 88 quarters over the period from the first quarter of 1998 to the last quarter of the year 2020 with the objective of detecting the trend components of these different variables.

The analysis of the transmission of economic cycles was presented using the method of dating the return points according to the Bry and Boschan method in order to detect the return points and subsequently the expansion and slowdown phases of the moroccan economy cycle, as well as the duration, amplitude and severity of each period. The results obtained showed that the Moroccan economy experienced ten cycles over the study period ranging from Q1 1998 to Q4 2020 with durations varying between five and seventeen quarters. The strongest correlations are recorded with the GDP of France and Spain with positive correlation coefficients of 0,68 and 0,64 respectively. The cycles of these two countries are one quarter ahead of the cycle of the Moroccan economy. The results also showed the presence of a procyclical movement between the Moroccan economic cycle and the main economic indicators.

Keywords : economic cycles, synchronization, filter, datation, transmission.

Classification JEL : M41

Paper type : Empirical Research