The economic consequences of electoral violence: Case of the East African Community

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa has been marked by various forms of political violence since the era of independence in 1960. Political violence has enormous consequences on the economic policies and development of countries. This is particularly the case of the East African Community (EAC). This article aims to analyse descriptively how political violence, especially electoral violence, affects macroeconomic aggregates in five EAC member countries with a focus on international trade. The article uses a dataset of macroeconomic aggregates from 2001 to 2018 for five EAC countries including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The results show that electoral violence negatively affects the macroeconomic aggregates of the EAC. Violent conflict reduces trade by disrupting foreign direct investment flows, increasing trade costs, destroying infrastructure, disrupting oil supplies, and reducing access to agricultural activities and inputs. However, electoral violence effects vary from one country to another, with a significant negative impact in landlocked countries. The results highlight the need for peace and security for the sustainable economic development of EAC countries. EAC member countries should prioritize the maintenance of peace and security in the region, a pillar of sustainable development. This will require ambitious hard facts, both national and regional, as the contagion effect of instability is higher in the region.

Keywords: Electoral Violence, Trade, Foreign Direct Investments, East African Community, Exports.

JEL Classification : D74, F10, O11, O18

Type of paper: theoretical research