Inflation target and ineffectiveness of unemployment policies in CEMAC countries

Abstract

The question of employment, mainly of young people in the world, is worrying: 74 million young people are today unemployed, an increase of 3.5 million since 2007. In 2014, the youth unemployment rate has already exceeded 12 % in developing countries. In addition, over the next five years, 200 million people are expected to enter the labor market in developing countries. During the period 1972-1990, monetary policy was characterized by the setting of a final objective, centered on research and the promotion of economic development in the BEAC emission zone. But since the reforms and financial liberalization of the 90s, the BEAC has used indirect instruments to regulate liquidity in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), in order to maintain an inflation level of 3% for all member countries. The purpose of this study is to assess the relevance of the inflation target in the countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), by estimating the sacrifice ratio over the period 1994- 2019. Using a model based on the Phillips curve, we carry out an econometric study based on the time series estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our study shows that the 3% inflation target renders CEMAC member countries' unemployment policies ineffective. To remedy this, it would be wise for the monetary authority to adopt the multilateral surveillance measures to each country of the community or to adjust the community standard by 3%.

JEL Classification: E31, E37, E52, E24

Type of article: Empirical research