Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Volatility: Revisiting the Short and Long-Term Underlying Relationship

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility in Morocco. The study is based on the analysis of monthly data covering the period from 2002 to 2020, collected from the Moroccan Central Bank (BAM) and the Casablanca Stock Exchange (BVC). The objective is to understand how the decisions of the Central Bank influence financial markets and the national economy.

The analysis relies on advanced econometric methods, including tests for determining the optimal lag and cointegration. The results reveal that the monetary policy conducted by BAM has a significant impact on long-term stock market volatility. Variations in interbank interest rates, M3 money supply, private sector credit (CSP), and inflation rate (INF) are associated with sustained fluctuations in the MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange.

The study also identifies the transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy influences stock markets. Changes in interbank interest rates directly impact business investment decisions, affecting profitability and stock prices. Additionally, M3 money supply and private sector credit CSP act as indirect channels by influencing economic activity and investor demand for equities.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stock Price Volatility, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model).

JEL Classification : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47

Paper type: Empirical research.