Empirical determination of the tax size in Morocco

Abstract

Fiscal policy is one of the main instruments of economic policy. It encompasses all the measures which have consequences on the resources and expenditure of the State and which aim to achieve certain short-term policy objectives. Thus, fiscal policy plays, through taxation (taxes) and levies, a crucial role in the growth of national production determined by the structural level of the tax burden. level of fiscal pressure directly or indirectly influences all aggregates, performances and macroeconomic indicators. In fact, the behavior of the public power represented, by the State, on the taxpayers causes an impact that can be analyzed through the share of tax receipts in ratio of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In addition, the total income tax revenue they pay, relative to their total income tax revenue, is used to assess the effect of tax pressure on industry or firm dynamics. So, the objective sought and which will be treated at the level of this work, is the quantification of the impact of the tax pressure on investment and on economic growth in Morocco. The empirical study by the ordinary least squares method, a cointegration and a VAR model shows that the tax burden impacts economic growth. Thus, a change in the tax rate of 1% will generate a decrease of 0.23% in long-term economic growth.

Keywords: Fiscal Pressure, Stationarity, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Autoregressive Vector, Impulse Responses

JEL Classification : C133, C21, C51, C52, E62

Paper type: Empirical research,